Where AI Fits in Forecasting (and Where It Doesn't)

Forecasting is where AI gets over-sold. The promise is often 'better forecasts.' The reality is closer to 'faster scenario modeling and clearer driver analysis,' which is genuinely valuable, just different.

AI is well suited to generating alternative scenarios quickly, drafting assumption narratives, and helping translate a model into the story leadership needs. It is poorly suited to deciding which scenario is right. That remains a judgment call, and it should.

The practical move is to let AI handle the breadth, more scenarios and faster output, so the finance team can spend its judgment on the depth: which assumptions to challenge, which drivers matter, and what the range of outcomes means for decisions today.